California’s Atmospheric Rivers Warn of Future Climatic Calamity
The next is an excerpt from a Sustain What blog post.
As one other potent West Coast atmospheric river makes landfall and headlines, it’s value restating that Californians aren’t remotely ready for the worst that the region’s whiplash climate can throw at them.
The recent spate of atmospheric river events is a shadow of what’s possible—actually inevitable.
Over the subsequent 7 days, several waves of energy are set to create atmospheric river conditions within the West. WPC’s QPF product shows widespread 5+” rain accumulations over 7 days! With each upcoming event, highly saturated soils create concern for flash flooding across the region. pic.twitter.com/t2FbhOhWGd
— NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) January 4, 2023
For the most recent warnings on the present hurricane-force system, track relevant National Weather Service output and follow extreme-weather scientists like Daniel Swain (@weather_west). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has an invaluable Atmospheric River forecast site, as well.
The term “atmospheric river” first appeared within the research literature in 1998 but these phenomena are a standard a part of weather systems over many oceanic regions.
Based on a comprehensive 2013 report, these systems are liable for 90 percent of world water transfer by the atmosphere! At the same time as most headlines portray these systems as threats, for places like California also they are an important consider breaking droughts and restoring snowpack.
A walnut orchard near the Sacramento River was flooded after several atmospheric rivers hit California in early 2023. Photo: Frank Schulenburg via Creative Commons
There’s no evidence of a world warming impact on these systems yet, but climate models do project intensification of atmospheric river rains as warming continues. One other 2022 study, by a team led by Christine Shields of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, reported finding that “geoengineering ends in fewer extreme rainfall events and more moderate ones.”
Such research is very important, but debates over climate change can distract from the core reality, which is that past patterns of those extreme events coupled with societal expansion in flood-prone regions guarantee momentous impacts.
Even California’s mind-boggling megaflood within the winter of 1861-2, which turned the Central Valley right into a freshwater sea, pales beside what the U.S. Geological Survey has said research on past rain events has found: “The geologic record shows 6 megastorms more severe than 1861-1862 in California within the last 1800 years, and there is no such thing as a reason to consider similar events won’t occur again.”
California has been growing in places just like the Central Valley and the Delta. Parts of the Delta are below sea level since it has been sinking. The Central Valley has also been sinking due to groundwater pumping, and a few parts are 30 feet deeper than in 1861. It’s a lot worse now — there are greater than 6 million people living within the Central Valley alone.
That’s value repeating. Some parts of the Central Valley are 30 feet deeper than in 1861.
Read the remaining of the story.
